One Possible Northern Endgame

Bae In-jun in an op-ed piece in the Dong A Ilbo paints a dystopic picture for the South if the North succeeds in its policy goal of dividing the South from the Americans.


“The North seems to believe that time is on its side. If the last few years have been characterized by the North using the left wing administration in the South to defeat the US in some kind of pro-South-to-overcome-the Americans strategy, from now on their strategy will shape up to clip the wings of the South’s conservative government via a new American liberal government, a kind of manipulate the US in order to block the South approach. If it can only amplify disagreement within the South itself, this might result in its dream scenario: using-the-South-to-overthrow-the South.

The North’s military-first revolutionary route could receive traction from the fissure opened up in US-South Korea relations at the time of the Bush-Kim Dae-jung and Bush-Noh Moo-hyun partnerships and furthermore if the gaps widen within South Korean society. If this were to transpire, the citizens of the South would without security and facing the nuclear and missile threats of the North find themselves in some kind of endless tragedy in which sleep would become impossible. Then we could look forward to the day when the North says, “We’ll look after you, so you get on with forging an economic foreign policy abroad and getting us as much as you can from those FTA agreements.””


Bae In-jun


It’s the nightmare scenario of a landlocked, imprisoned populace paying tributes to its northern gangmaster at the end of each month, envisaging 50 million people bowing at the feet of their protector-jailor. The possibility of its oncoming would lead to a rush toward thoughts of emigration in the South greater than the panic amongst Hong Kong Chinese after Tiananmen Square.


– By voting in the Lee Myung-bak government, the South actually moved away from that scenario (toward which they were voluntarily headed) and

– The South’s military spending can outpace the North’s for years to come.









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