Will it Happen? What will the Reaction be?
On March 12, 2009, North Korea informed the International Maritime Organization that it would carry out a rocket launch sometime between April 4 and 8. The North Korean government claimed that the device would be putting into orbit “an experimental communications satellite.” North Korea’s neighbours are veiwing the launch as a hostile and destabilizing act. And they believe the event could be a repeat test firing of intercontinental missile type Taepodong 2. In July, 2006, this missile, which theoretically could reach the continental United States, was launched in a failed test firing. It plummeted into the sea after less than a minute. This time could be different. Will a precipitative military firing event take place in April 2009?
가) Could it spark a war in North-East Asia?
나) What if it really is the launch of a communications satellite and the North beats the South into space?
다) Has North Korea improved its rocket technology and is it now ready to threaten the new US administration with the possibility of nuclear tipped missile attack?
라) Is the gradual public playing out of the “event” a mere shadow event designed to gain leverage in some intermediate talks process or ultimate final grand bargain with the States?
마) What will be the reaction of South Korea, Japan, and the United States be should the North Koreans go ahead with the launch of a long range missile test?
North Korea Missile Test 2009 will trail the build up to April 4th and follow the range of analyses in the Korean media and elsewhere.